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Numbers only part of illegal immigrants story

Experts disagree on economic impact

Posted: February 20, 2010 10:40 p.m.
Updated: February 21, 2010 8:16 p.m.
 
Illegal immigrants place a tremendous burden on California and the rest of the nation, experts agree.

What they can't agree on, however, is whether their presence is an endless drain on the economy or merely a short-term expense with an enormous payoff.

Estimates of how many illegal immigrants are living in the United States and how much they cost taxpayers differ by millions - both in terms of individuals and dollars.

And while a multitude of political groups wage a war over public perception, experts agree that counting illegal immigrants isn't easy, nor is showing precisely how much they and their children are hurting - or even helping - the economy.

Counts vary widely
Estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the United States range from 13 million to 10.8 million. Estimates of the number of illegal aliens in California range from 3.2 million to 1.7 million.

"Twelve million (illegal immigrants) in the United States is much too low" of an estimate, said Jack Kyser, founding economist for The Kyser Center for Economic Research. "We don't know how many are in L.A. County. There are no good estimates."

"It's something between 10 to 14 million (in the U.S.)," said Robert Rector, a researcher at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative policy think tank.

Conservative groups tend to release estimates of illegal immigrant population and costs on the higher end of the spectrum, while governmental and other groups often release lower numbers.

Whatever the count, experts agree that the number is declining, at least right now.

"The one area that is very difficult to calculate is the number of illegal immigrants - or legal immigrants - leaving the country," said Jack Martin, spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a conservative illegal immigration policy group.

"What makes these estimates variable is based on the assumptions that are used (in the reports)."

A U.S. Department of Homeland Security report says as of January 2009, 2.6 million illegal immigrants were living in California - down from 2.8 million in 2008.

Kyser said the number has declined in part because of the sluggish economy, but increased violence in Mexico could keep illegal immigrants in the United States.

Cost of illegal immigration
Despite the decrease, the Homeland Security report says, California is still home to nearly a quarter of the nation's population of unlawful immigrants.

The costs can be considered in two ways: Those incurred by illegal aliens themselves; and those incurred by the children of illegal aliens.

The U.S. Constitution grants legal citizenship to any person born in America, including the children of those here unlawfully.

A few efforts have been made to change the Constitution so that the children of illegals are not legal citizens, but such efforts have so far failed.

Many experts agree that California pays the most on social welfare programs to support illegal immigrants' children - who are often legal U.S. citizens.

Los Angeles County Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich regularly releases figures showing the cost to taxpayers of educating and caring for illegal immigrants' children.

Using figures from the Department of Public Social Services, Antonovich, whose district includes the Santa Clarita Valley, said children of illegal immigrants cost taxpayers about $570 million in social programs in 2009.

And he doesn't necessarily see the distinction between the U.S. citizen children and their illegal parents.

"The children are the intended recipients, but they don't have bank accounts so the benefits go to the parents, who are illegal immigrants," said Anonovich spokesman Tony Bell.

But a Harvard University expert on immigration said that's oversimplifying the matter.

While it's true California pays more than any other state for the children of illegal immigrants, the numbers Antonovich uses only focus on the cost for one year, said Edward Schumacher-Matos, director of the Harvard Inter-Faculty Initiative on Immigration and Integration Policy and Studies.

Over the course of their lifetimes, illegal immigrants and their children ultimately provide a financial benefit to the state, he said.

"Yeah, there's a fiscal cost, but what those numbers don't tell you is how much these people contribute over their lifetime," Schumacher-Matos said, "how investing in these children is investing in the future of the economy."

Illegal immigrants pay taxes that generate revenue for the state, Schumacher-Matos said. The federal government also pays some of the costs for California's social welfare programs, he said.

Illegal immigrants paid about $280 million in state income tax last year, according to a USC immigration report.

"It's a complex picture," Schumacher-Matos conceded.

Amnesty pro and con
Professors from USC and Harvard say providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants could generate billions in tax revenue for the state, and that spending money on the children of illegal immigrants will help the economy in the long run.

Others say granting anmesty to illegal immigrants would only add to the problem.

"(Amnesty) is a formula for perpetuating our problem with illegal immigration, rather than solving it," said Martin of the Federation for American Immigration Reform.

Some experts note that illegal immigrants' children, even if born in the United States, tend to belong to poorer families that are more likely to need government assistance.

Granting citizenship to illegal immigrants already living in California would generate about $16 billion in tax revenue for the state, said Justin Scoggins, a data analyst who helped put together the USC immigration report.

"It seems (illegal immigration) is a really contentious issue," Scoggins said, "and it's more emotional than rooted in facts."

Feb. 20, 2010 10:40p.m. EST Numbers only part of illegal immigrants story The Signal
Illegal immigrants place a tremendous burden on California and the rest of the nation, experts agree.

What they can't agree on, however, is whether their presence is an endless drain on the economy or merely a short-term expense with an enormous payoff.

Estimates of how many illegal immigrants are living in the United States and how much they cost taxpayers differ by millions - both in terms of individuals and dollars.

And while a multitude of political groups wage a war over public perception, experts agree that counting illegal immigrants isn't easy, nor is showing precisely how much they and their children are hurting - or even helping - the economy.

Counts vary widely
Estimates of the number of illegal immigrants in the United States range from 13 million to 10.8 million. Estimates of the number of illegal aliens in California range from 3.2 million to 1.7 million.

"Twelve million (illegal immigrants) in the United States is much too low" of an estimate, said Jack Kyser, founding economist for The Kyser Center for Economic Research. "We don't know how many are in L.A. County. There are no good estimates."

"It's something between 10 to 14 million (in the U.S.)," said Robert Rector, a researcher at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative policy think tank.

Conservative groups tend to release estimates of illegal immigrant population and costs on the higher end of the spectrum, while governmental and other groups often release lower numbers.

Whatever the count, experts agree that the number is declining, at least right now.

"The one area that is very difficult to calculate is the number of illegal immigrants - or legal immigrants - leaving the country," said Jack Martin, spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a conservative illegal immigration policy group.

"What makes these estimates variable is based on the assumptions that are used (in the reports)."

A U.S. Department of Homeland Security report says as of January 2009, 2.6 million illegal immigrants were living in California - down from 2.8 million in 2008.

Kyser said the number has declined in part because of the sluggish economy, but increased violence in Mexico could keep illegal immigrants in the United States.

Cost of illegal immigration
Despite the decrease, the Homeland Security report says, California is still home to nearly a quarter of the nation's population of unlawful immigrants.

The costs can be considered in two ways: Those incurred by illegal aliens themselves; and those incurred by the children of illegal aliens.

The U.S. Constitution grants legal citizenship to any person born in America, including the children of those here unlawfully.

A few efforts have been made to change the Constitution so that the children of illegals are not legal citizens, but such efforts have so far failed.

Many experts agree that California pays the most on social welfare programs to support illegal immigrants' children - who are often legal U.S. citizens.

Los Angeles County Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich regularly releases figures showing the cost to taxpayers of educating and caring for illegal immigrants' children.

Using figures from the Department of Public Social Services, Antonovich, whose district includes the Santa Clarita Valley, said children of illegal immigrants cost taxpayers about $570 million in social programs in 2009.

And he doesn't necessarily see the distinction between the U.S. citizen children and their illegal parents.

"The children are the intended recipients, but they don't have bank accounts so the benefits go to the parents, who are illegal immigrants," said Anonovich spokesman Tony Bell.

But a Harvard University expert on immigration said that's oversimplifying the matter.

While it's true California pays more than any other state for the children of illegal immigrants, the numbers Antonovich uses only focus on the cost for one year, said Edward Schumacher-Matos, director of the Harvard Inter-Faculty Initiative on Immigration and Integration Policy and Studies.

Over the course of their lifetimes, illegal immigrants and their children ultimately provide a financial benefit to the state, he said.

"Yeah, there's a fiscal cost, but what those numbers don't tell you is how much these people contribute over their lifetime," Schumacher-Matos said, "how investing in these children is investing in the future of the economy."

Illegal immigrants pay taxes that generate revenue for the state, Schumacher-Matos said. The federal government also pays some of the costs for California's social welfare programs, he said.

Illegal immigrants paid about $280 million in state income tax last year, according to a USC immigration report.

"It's a complex picture," Schumacher-Matos conceded.

Amnesty pro and con
Professors from USC and Harvard say providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants could generate billions in tax revenue for the state, and that spending money on the children of illegal immigrants will help the economy in the long run.

Others say granting anmesty to illegal immigrants would only add to the problem.

"(Amnesty) is a formula for perpetuating our problem with illegal immigration, rather than solving it," said Martin of the Federation for American Immigration Reform.

Some experts note that illegal immigrants' children, even if born in the United States, tend to belong to poorer families that are more likely to need government assistance.

Granting citizenship to illegal immigrants already living in California would generate about $16 billion in tax revenue for the state, said Justin Scoggins, a data analyst who helped put together the USC immigration report.

"It seems (illegal immigration) is a really contentious issue," Scoggins said, "and it's more emotional than rooted in facts."

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